סא"ל (מיל') יוני שיטבון מתריע על התהליך האזורי שמובילות קטאר והאמירויות, שלדבריו פועל להקמת מרחב שיעי סביב מדינת ישראל. לדבריו, מעורבותן של מדינות אלו בתהליכים מדיניים, ובמיוחד בתיווך במשא ומתן להשבת החטופים, אינה נובעת מאינטרס טהור אלא מתוך רצון לשמר את המורכבות במזרח התיכון – מצב שמשרת את האינטרסים של המתווכים.
שיטבון טוען כי "המורכבות מייצרת תלות והזדמנויות", והמרוויח העיקרי הוא המתווך עצמו. לדבריו, מדובר באסטרטגיה של קניית זמן שמטרתה חיזוק ההשפעה השיעית האזורית, כולל באמצעות גיבוי לגורמים פרו-איראניים.
הוא קורא למדינת ישראל לשנות את מוקד תשומת הלב הביטחונית, ולהבין כי האיום השיעי אינו מתמצה רק באיראן – אלא כולל גם את ההתעצמות הסובבת אותה באזור. ישראל צריכה להיערך בהתאם, לא רק מול איראן אלא מול כל המרחב השיעי שנרקם סביבה.
Remember, that this statement is being given a mere day or two after the Chinese foreign minister, exposed Trumps 'dishonesty', by stating that zero contact or negotiations had started between Trumps America, and China. Perhaps that is just a negotiating tool for the current American administration, or perhaps he is manipulating the stock market. Regardless, it would seem to be a negative as far as the presidents seriousness, and dependability. Just getting back into negotiations for a JCPOA type of agreement, after he pulled out of the last one, because Iran was violating the agreement, is a far worse sign of how much risk America is willing to sign Israel up for.
Americas social cohesion and narrative, are so reduced, compared to what they used to be. The fact that America is not trying to get over the hump, of illegitimacy, implies two things to me. One, the people in charge in America do not think that the American people are up for more progress, and secondly, that the oppression of the Jewish people is of critical importance to America.
Just because Trump doesn't want war with Iran, doesn't mean that America might not be forced into it. If Israel attacks on its own, the rules of this place might also mean that America gets sucked into that fight.
Our job is to make the best call we can. There is considerable reason to fear the Iranian nuclear program, reason to fear any agreement that Iran signs with Trump, with the consequences for ignoring the threat we see to be massive. We could face a tremendous increase of terrorism against Israel, constantly reinforced with the threat of nuclear attack, as well as actual nuclear attack. With the world, smiling, hat in hand, consoling us for all the dead Jews.
Have faith that G-d has made us a choice, an option, to avoid horrible suffering. Even if America abandons us. Or hopes to keep us down. If you know that G-d would give us a choice to avoid getting nuked by Iran, if you believe that the financial government will protect the Jews, Israel, and make a path for healthy or somewhat functional race relations healing, then you can believe that Israel has the capability to sufficiently set back the Iranian nuclear weapon program, all on its own. Until the world government is exposed, which may not be to far off.
If Israel gets nuked, we would be facing a very lowly type of light on the world, a barbaric world, where mass murder is initiated without hesitation. I do not believe that is what G-d wants for this world. Even living under the threat of nuclear war perpetually, will create massive fear, tremendous violence and harm, abandonment of Israel by many, with much higher likelihoods of some final nuclear exchange. All the oil exports would go according to jihadi demands for foreign policy. If they don’t rule directly, their influence will.
That is before the rest of the middle east attains nuclear weapons, as well as many other nations in the world. At which point, worldwide nuclear war may become inevitable. When the first nuke goes off, all global trade will end abruptly, every stock market on earth will crash, and the worst depression the world has ever known will begin. Followed by far more nuclear war.
Israel should not allow the world to lie and sleepwalk its way to nuclear proliferation. The American nation may imagine themselves separate and removed. They may be compelled by their decadence, to embrace sweet sounding lies, like peace deals with Ayatolas are possible, and will be followed. But the leaders of the Jewish nation should know better. As should a great many Jewish people.
The Iranian people, and the Iranian leadership, are not rational actors. By the rules of this world, they are unstable, and perpetually inclined to hysterical demand for their world view, and their imaginary dominant identity to be indulged. A nuclear Iran means that Mohamad no longer needs to hide his beliefs. He will use every excuse, every incident, to demand his peoples rights are defended. He will claim that every preference for non muslim immigration, or change in the immigration policy, is an act of racism.
I know that the UK and France are slated to become Islamic nations. But even if they do, it will be a long time before they become unstable to the degree that the Iranian people are. A people who believe in their supremacy due to islam, and love of death over the non believers, as their path to victory. As well as their government, based on radical Islamism, that is perpetually incapable of giving themselves a standard of living, or the support of the entire population like they desire. A nation facing even greater economic disaster due to the advent of electric vehicles. A nation that is 50% Christian, is very different than a 100% Islamic theocracy. Islamic western Europe may be controlled for a decade and a half, and it is still a while off.
It would seem like the best way to avoid horrendous fates, is for the financial government of the world to expose itself, and show the people that it can over rule the nuclear ambitions of some nations. The rational world can make agreements to avoid nuclear war, but governments like Irans would need to be defeated and removed. Exposing the shadow government seems like a far out concept at this time. I always thought the environmental movement was a pretense to the control of the hidden hand.
Israel can control the entire chess board here. It has the motive, to overrule Trump and America. The American people does not want another war in the middle east. Despite the fact that it would seem that an air campaign, and possible mixing of other low risk objectives, would be sufficient to achieve a great deal.
Their relationship with their government is broken, they are hyper sensitive to any conversation involving the Jews, and the American government is inclined to desire to manage a nuclear threat against Israel. That fulfills many of their goals of keeping the Jews and Israel down. Forcing it to stay close to western multicultural narratives. A dangerous situation, but one that they probably imagine they can manage. A way to force Israel to accept the two state solution, or face nuclear annihilation. That will motivate the Israeli government.
America and the west face A massive fall. To great for them to accept. It is not the end of the world, it is not death, but to go from the dominant superpower of the world, to just another empire in the world, strongly attacked due to decades and centuries of abuses, possibly facing years of total economic collapse, is far to gigantic a motive for decadent American leaders to accept. They will embrace the lie, they will say what can we do to stop a nuclear Iran, and they will allow the world to end, in a tantrum over the unfairness of them losing their position in the world. It is a bad call, but embracing gigantic consequences, rather than a little lie of it will be ok, is probably a test America will fail. Hopefully talking about it, is enough to force postures and policies, that avoid the destruction of Israel, and the world.
Iran thinks its defeat means the end of the world. So, Israel can’t get A nuclear Iran to stop firing missiles into Israel, unless Israel submits to Iran’s demands, and it cannot destabilize the Iranian government with conventional weapons. All that would be left is taking the abuse, until the confrontation.
If Israel is clear that they will attack Iran, which will probably need to be public, saying we are willing to accept the end of our relationship with America, and may need to use any means necessary to control this threat. If Israel made its position absolutely clear, if it said covertly or overtly that they might need to use nukes against military targets, then America might be forced to intervene. If America says to Iran, break down your nuclear weapon program, or face certain doom, then they would probably do so. In G-d I trust.